This article presents a new filter for state-space models based on Bellman's dynamic programming principle applied to the posterior mode. The proposed Bellman filter generalises the Kalman filter including its extended and iterated versions, while remaining equally inexpensive computationally....

We propose a simple mixtures estimator for recovering the joint distribution of parameter heterogeneity in economic models, such as the random coefficients logit. The estimator is based on linear regression subject to linear inequality constraints, and is robust, easy to program, and...

This paper describes a method for solving a class of forward-looking Markov-switching Rational Expectations models under noisy measurement, by specifying the unobservable expectations component as a general-measurable function of the observable states of the system, to be determined optimally...

This paper develops an approximate closed-form optimal portfolio allocation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a GARCH(1,1) process. We consider an investor with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility who wants to maximize the expected utility from terminal wealth under a...

We determine the magnitude and nature of systematic default risk using 1971{2009) default data from Moody's. We disentangle systematic risk factors due to business cycle effects, common default dynamics (frailty), and industry-specific dynamics (including contagion). To quantify the contribution...

A macro-prudential policy maker can manage risks to financial stability only if currentand future risks can be reliably assessed. We propose a novel framework to assessfinancial system risk. Using a dynamic factor framework based on state-space methods, we model latent macro-financial and credit...

Thinly traded securities exist in both emerging and well developed markets. However, plausible estimations of market risk measures for portfolios with infrequently traded securities have not been explored in the literature. We propose a methodology to calculate market risk measures based on the...