A simple nonlinear structural model of endogenous belief heterogeneity is proposed. News about fundamentals is an IID random process, but nevertheless volatility clustering occurs as an endogenous phenomenon caused by the interaction between different types of traders, fundamentalists and...

Die vorliegende Betriebsfallstudie ist im Rahmen einer Magisterarbeit an der UniversitätBremen entstanden. Das ausgewertete empirische Material wurde im Zuge des Verbundprojekts‚Prävention in Unternehmen der Wissensökonomie’ (PRÄWIN) erhoben, welches zumZiel hat, Potenziale und Barrieren...

Based on outcomes for residents and qualitative studies, it is widelythought that public services meet the needs of residents less well indeprived areas, and that this is due to both the demands placed onservices being greater and the services themselves being of a lowerquality. This paper looks...

We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that theyare anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range ofempirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely onsurvey data to...

Using data collected in 2000 on a racially and ethnically diverse sample of high school seniors (typically 17-18 years old), this study analyzes teenagers’ expectations and desires about marriage, having children, and becoming unwed parents. The study is the first to examine all six outcomes...

Survey data from Bulgaria show that people who had experienced a loss during a banking crisisare significantly more likely to expect a new crisis. This result holds despite 12 years betweenthe earlier crisis and the survey, and the dramatically improved performance of the financialsector and the...

We use spline interpolation to approximate the subjective cumulative distribution function ofan economic agent over the future realization of a continuous (possibly censored) randomvariable. The method proposed exploits information collected using a small number ofprobability questions on...