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forecast evaluation; provides additional Monte Carlo simulation results on GARCH model estimation and VaR prediction; extends …This appendix extends simulation and empirical results reported in Mancini and Trojani (2010). It discusses the choice …
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extreme value theory (EVT) to propose a multivariate estimation procedure for value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES … estimators of market risk. Despite advances in the theory and practice of evaluating risk, existing measures are notoriously poor … contrast them with the popular Gaussian GARCH estimator in an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. The method we propose generally …
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In this paper, we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...
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The present study compares the performance of the long memory FIGARCH model, with that of the short memory GARCH specification, in the forecasting of multi-period Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across 20 stock indices worldwide. The dataset is comprised of daily data covering...
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