This paper identifies the cyclical drivers of the current account balance (CAB) in Türkiye and assesses the relevant macro policy implications. We employ the notion of "underlying current account", which corrects for cyclical factors such as global and domestic growth, terms of trade, as well...

The predominant role of cross border financial flows for macroeconomic and financial stability has imposed complex policy trade-offs for emerging economies, especially after the global financial crisis. This note provides a brief account of the macroprudential policy approach adopted in Turkey...

Measuring and monitoring inflation uncertainty is an essential ingredient of monetary policy analysis. This study constructs survey measures of inflation uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Using density and point inflation forecasts in the CBRT Survey of Expectations, we derive various...

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the...

This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy communication of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) by quantifying the information content of the policy statements released right after the monthly Monetary Policy Committee meetings. First, we quantify the signal regarding the next...

Many central banks in emerging economies have used reserve requirements (RR) to alleviate the trade-off between financial stability and price stability in recent years. Notwithstanding their widespread use, transmission channels of RR have remained largely as a black-box. In this paper, we use...

Turkey's high current account deficit has been at the core of macroeconomic policy discussions in recent years. Quantifying the role of cyclical factors in driving the current account fluctuations is essential for designing an appropriate policy response and evaluating the impact of policy...

Although reserve requirements have been used in emerging markets to smooth credit cycles, the exact transmission mechanism remains to be explored. Using bank level data, this study looks inside the black-box to unveil the interaction of reserve requirement policy with bank lending. We identify a...