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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008840232
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status quo bias. We evaluated interest rate forecast series from twelve industrial nations. This revealed that, on average …, forecasts were much too close to the status quo - the current interest rate at the time when the forecast was made. With the aid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009241527
In contrast to the disappearing dividends view, we predict that variability in dividend payments increases investor demand for dividend information and analysts respond to this demand by producing informative dividend forecasts. We examine dividend payers from 16 countries spanning 2000–2013...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003188
This paper examines the extent to which financial signaling affects the analysts' and managers' forecast releases. The … findings give evidence of heterogeneity of analysts' forecast errors between firms with strong financial indicators (high … group). The paper further indicates that managers' forecast releases also depend on the type of the firm and that managers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071999
In this exercise, we attempt to develop an institutional quality investment cum trading strategy with small and retail investor in mind. Apart from lack of professional expertise and smaller investible amounts, individual investors also face limitations in their ability to taking short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847816
We develop a model where overconfident investors overestimate their own signal quality but are skeptical of others'. Those investors who are initially uninformed believe that the early informed have learned little, leading the former investors to provide excess liquidity, which, in turn, causes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012901605
This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We are the first to compare individual financial professionals' self-ratings with their true forecasting performance. Data spans several years at monthly frequency. The forecasters in our sample do not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003877592
earnings forecast accuracy, as forecast accuracy may be a signal of decreased price impact of trades and increased profit … trading opportunities. We predict a negative association between ownership by dedicated investors and earnings forecast … forecast accuracy is not relevant for the investment decisions of quasi-indexers.Our empirical evidence suggests that transient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131397
We correlate analysts' forecast errors with temporal variation in investor sentiment. We find that when sentiment is … “uncertain” or “difficult to value” firms. Adding these forecast errors to a regression of stock returns on sentiment absorbs a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116864