Defensive decision making occurs when a manager ranks an option as the best for the organization yet deliberately chooses a second-best option that protects him or herself against negative consequences. We study 950 managers in a public administration to analyze the frequency and causes of...

Ende Oktober 2018 hat der Sachverständigenrat für Verbraucherfragen das Gutachten "Verbrauchergerechtes Scoring" vorgelegt. Es geht dabei um die sich ausbreitende Praxis, immer mehr Aspekte des Verhaltens der Bürger durch "Scores" vorherzusagen oder zu steuern. Scoring ist durch eine Reihe...

The article shows by various examples how consumers of statistical information may be confused when this information is presented in terms of conditional probabilities. It also shows how this confusion helps others to lie with statistics, and it suggests how either confusion or lies can be...