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In this paper, I summarize the Fiscal Model and use it to make a forecast of President Obama's share of the two party …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102752
The fiscal model of presidential elections is summarized and used to forecast President Obama's share of the two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109218
The Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections, as modified after its failure to forecast President Obama's reelection in … 2012, accounts for all but three out of sample retrodictions since 1916. This year, its point forecast has the incumbent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985379
interest in this study is the short- and long-term forecasting and, thus, we consider from the short forecast horizon of 1-day …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177191
, but candidates are not allowed to bluntly lie about their ideology. Every voter votes for the candidate she expects to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010255046
Donald Trump's presidential campaign highlighted protectionism of U.S.-born workers at a time of growing income inequality, racial tensions, and labor market polarization. Our study investigates if and how voters' life circumstances affected election behavior between 2012 and 2016, and how voter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836646
Politicians' behavioral changes as an election nears have typically been attributed to the incentive effects of an election. I document that behavioral changes can occur even for unelected judges.Using data from 1925-2002 on U.S. appellate judges, who are appointed for life, I find that just...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855303
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012217219
Politicians’ behavioral changes as an election nears have typically been attributed to the incentive effects of an election. I document that behavioral changes can occur even for unelected judges. Using data from 1925-2002 on U.S. appellate judges, who are appointed for life, I find that just...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347147
The change in elected officials’ behavior when an election nears has typically been attributed to incentive effects. I document that behavioral changes can occur even for unelected judges. Using data from 1925-2002 on U.S. appellate judges, who are appointed for life, I find that just before...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241686