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The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...
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Using a model of deterministic structural change, we revisit several topics in inflation dynamics explored previously using stochastic, time - varying parameter models. We document significant reductions in inflation persistence and predictability. We estimate that changes in the volatility of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122034
The rise of the service economy has been the predominant pattern of structural change in the twentieth century. This …
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Regions in Germany are facing an intensifying structural change towards the knowledge economy which is affecting … from 1998 to 2010 in 16 branches of the knowledge economy with a shift-share analysis. We argue that structural change and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011478347
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The sectoral composition of the US economy has changed dramatically in the past six decades. At the same time …, knowledge and information assets are becoming increasingly important in the value creation process of a modern economy. This ….The implications of the model are consistent with the following stylized facts in US economy: (1) the high intangible sector has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150903