The performance and economic value of public outlook forecasts has been of continuing interest to agricultural economists and market participants. This dissertation provide new and powerful evidence on the performance of outlook forecasts relative to futures prices in hog and cattle markets over...

SUMMARY Decision makers often observe point forecasts of the same variable computed, for instance, by commercial banks, IMF and the World Bank, but the econometric models used by such institutions are frequently unknown. This paper shows how to use the information available on point forecasts to...

This paper contributes to the debate on whether the Brazilian public debt is sustainable or not in the long run by considering threshold effects on the Brazilian Budget Deficit. Using data from 1947 to 1999 and a threshold autoregressive model, we find evidence of delays in fiscal stabilization....