uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we show that the uncertainty of a typical forecaster can be expressed as … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function and a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we show … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility …

This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country … negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast … revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO …