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This paper analyzes the effect of planned fiscal consolidation on GDP growth forecast errors from the years 2010–2013 using cross section analyses and fixed effects estimations. Our main findings are that fiscal multipliers have been underestimated in most instances for the year 2011 while we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011336937
This paper analyzes the effect of planned fiscal consolidation on GDP growth forecast errors from the years 2010-2013 using cross section analyses and fixed effects estimations. Our main findings are that fiscal multipliers have been underestimated in most instances for the year 2011 while we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444033
Cross institutional forecast evaluations may be severely distorted by the fact that forecasts are made at different points in time, and thus with different amount of information. This paper proposes a method to account for these differences. The method computes the timing effect and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011535966
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818912
forecasts for short dynamic panel data. We implement a nonparametric Bayesian approach to simultaneously identify coefficients … accurate estimates and score predictive gains over standard panel data estimators. With a data-driven group structure, the BGRE … standard panel data estimators …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824627
This paper promotes the use of panel data in nowcasting. We shift the existing focus of the literature, which has … propose a mixed-frequency panel VAR model and a bias-corrected least squares (BCLS) estimator which attenuates the bias … inherent to fixed effects dynamic panel settings. We demonstrate how existing panel model selection and combination methods can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864837
This paper develops new methods for testing equal predictive accuracy in panels of forecasts that exploit information in the time series and cross-sectional dimensions of the data. Using a common factor setup, we establish conditions on cross-sectional dependencies in forecast errors which allow...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871416
This paper analyzes the effect of planned fiscal consolidation on GDP growth forecast errors from the years 2010-2013 using cross section analyses and fixed effects estimations. Our main findings are that fiscal multipliers have been underestimated in most instances for the year 2011 while we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002556
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012614548
We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with …-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of parameter heterogeneity. We investigate conditions under which panel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013176894