We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function and a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we show … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we show that the uncertainty of a typical forecaster can be expressed as … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country … negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast … revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we show that the uncertainty of a typical forecaster can be expressed as … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …

the consensus forecasts (usually calculated as the mean or the median of the forecasts from a panel of individual … measures on forecasts themselves, there appear some limits of the same measures when we study their impact on forecast errors …. Our findings, indeed, suggest that deviations of the economic forecast data from the realized ones (RGDP and the current …

This paper investigates the relationships among cross-sectional stock returns and analysts' forecast revisions …, forecast dispersion and momentum. Market rewards the strategy in pursuit of revision up and away from revision down by 22 …-2015 periods. Revision up and revision down betas account for most of the momentum strategy and over half of forecast dispersion …