We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …

equally in terms of parameter estimation. Based on this feature we show how to extract common trends and cycles from the data …

the model's output gap as a benchmark, we further show that common output gap estimation methods exhibit a systematic bias …

We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the … link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for … modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based inflation forecasts not only shadow survey expectations in the pre …

economic agents' inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three different measures. The results suggest that … OECD inflation forecasts perform relatively well as a proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, since under this … approach the European inflation process can be modeled using the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve. However …

The relationship between inflation and real GDP growth is one of the most widely researched topics in macroeconomics … policy, given the fact that low inflation in combination with high and sustained output growth should be the central … central banks all over the world have selected target levels for inflation and communicated them to the public. Against this …

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …

, inflation and unemployment, we detect a wrong sign in the response of inflation to contractionary monetary policy shocks … 1999-2019, when the Federal Funds Rate and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate are added to the VAR model inflation shows … significant unemployment inflation trade-off emerges. These conclusions are confirmed by using industrial production instead of …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the … and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic …. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with …