Das ifo Institut erstellt zusammen mit dem INSEE, Paris, und dem Istat, Rom vierteljährlich Prognosen für das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt, die Inflation, den Konsum, die Investitionen und die Industrieproduktion im Euroraum, den Eurozone Economic Outlook (EZEO). Der Beitrag bewertet die...

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...

This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the...

We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear prediction pools, which we call dynamic pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, with and without financial frictions, for output...

The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 and the subsequent reunification process between the former centrally planned GDR and the market-oriented Federal Republic of Germany, rapidly raised fears about mass migration movements from the eastern to the western part. The anxiety of an...

While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...