We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

We investigate whether and to what extent aggregate earnings forecasts by sell-side analysts and forecasts of macroeconomic indicators by economists convey different information about the macroeconomy, and whether such differences have implications for forecast efficiency and the stock market....

Economists have occasionally noticed the appearance of economists in cartoons produced for public amusement during crises. Yet the message behind such images has been less than fully appreciated. This paper provides evidence of such inattention in the context of the eighteenth century...

Economists have occasionally noticed the appearance of economists in cartoons produced for public amusement during crises. Yet the message behind such images has been less than fully appreciated. This paper provides evidence of such inattention in the context of the eighteenth century...

Economists have become very influential intellectuals in our contemporary society. The scientific knowledge produced by the discipline and the academic status of economists can be considered as a decisive power resource in media debates and politics. The current state of economics has been...

Die Welt durchlebt die tiefste Depression seit den 1930er Jahren. Wieso war die Wirtschaftswissenschaft so schlecht auf dieses Ereignis vorbereitet? Welche Verantwortung muss der akademischen Profession übernehmen und welche Konsequenzen muss eine wissenschaftliche Disziplin tragen, die...

About seven years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, followed by a series of economic crises there are hardly any signs for a crisis of economics. After a short period of public, political and self-criticism of economics and distinct economists the dominant crisis narratives brought...