Before coupon bond data can be used to make term structure inferences it must be adjusted to account for the coupon effect. This paper compares the performance of two alternative adjustment methods, namely a duration based adjustment of term and a zero coupon method that adjusts yields. The...

This paper examines the character of profitable arbitrage opportunities existing between the Australian share market and the Sydney Futures Exchange's share price index (SPI) contract. It first looks at the nature of the deviation of SPI futures prices from their theoretical values over the...

An appropriate stochastic model was fitted to one year data on the implied volatility of options on 90 day bank accepted bill futures contracts traded in the Sydney Futures Exchange. The model used was ARIMA augmnented with day of the week variables, an option time to maturity variable, and...

This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant,...

In this paper, the IMF''s new Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the relative importance of a number of factors argued to explain the differences in the trends in core inflation and relative prices in the United Kingdom, the Euro Area and the United States. The simulation results...

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia’s growth differential has had on Australia. The simulation analysis, which replicates some key features...

The paper uses MULTIMOD to examine the implications of uncertain exchange rate pass-through for the conduct of monetary policy. From the policymaker''s perspective, uncertainty about exchange rate pass-through implies uncertainty about policy multipliers and the impact of state variables on...

Based on a version of the IMF’s new Global Economic Model (GEM), calibrated to analyze macroeconomic interdependence between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent an asymmetric productivity shock in the tradable sector of the economy may account for real...