Data from R.A. Fisher, 1936, on the characteristics of 50 iris flowers of three species: iris setosa, iris versicolor and iris virginica. Four characteristics are recorded for each flower: sepal length, sepal width, petal width, and petal length.

Data from Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data, Economic Journal, 2001, 111:F102-F121. Quarterly, 1979q1 to 1999q4.

Estimation of the I(2) cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is considered. Without further restrictions, estimation of the I(1) model is by reduced-rank regression (Anderson (1951)). Maximum likelihood estimation of I(2) models, on the other hand, always requires iteration. This paper...

The distribution of a functional of two correlated vector Brownian motions isapproximated by a Gamma distribution. This functional represents the limiting distribution for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors, but also for cointegration tests based on a non-Gaussian...

We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier candidates are the observations with the largest standardized residual. First, a likelihood-ratio based test determines the presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second...

Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems including an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases and selecting by inappropriate methods. We consider the many important requirements when searching for a...

This paper provides some test cases, called circuits, for the evaluation of Gaussian likelihood maximization algorithms of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. Both I(1) and I(2) models are considered. The performance of algorithms is compared first in terms of effectiveness, defined as...

We investigate forecasting in models that condition on variables for which future values are unknown. We consider the role of the significance level because it guides the binary decisions whether to include or exclude variables. The analysis is extended by allowing for a structural break, either...