This paper models UK stock market returns in a smooth transition regression (STR) framework. We employ a variety of financial and macroeconomic series that are assumed to influence UK stock returns, namely GDP, interest rates, inflation, money supply and US stock prices. We estimate STR models...

We test for a change in the volatility of 215 US macroeconomic time series over the period 1960-1996. We find that about 90% of these series have experienced a break in volatility during this period. This result is robust to controlling for instability in the mean and business cycle...

This paper investigates the nature of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule of the US Fed using the flexible approach of Hamilton (2001a). We find that while there is significant evidence of nonlinearity for the period to 1979, there is little such evidence for the subsequent period....