We use the returns on a set of international financial securities to identify exogenous shocks to the Canadian federal surplus. We find that a large portion of the variation in the surplus can be replicated by a linear combination of these returns and that the rising debt observed in the 1980s...

We develop an endogenous growth model in which new technology and new skills are bounded complements -- they complement each other to a point, but beyond this the impact of each factor is constrained by the level of the other. As a result, both technological progress and human capital...

We show how a Schumpeterian process of creative destruction can induce rational, herd-behavior by entrepreneurs across diverse sectors of the economy that may look like it is fuelled by ``animal spirits''. Consequently, a multi-sector economy, in which sector-specific, productivity improvements...

We explore the implications of endogenous credit market imperfections for the relationship between property crime and the process of economic development. In the initial stages of development, property crime rises as the opportunities to gain from illegal activities expand. In later stages,...

In this article we argue that the evaluation and implementation of Canadian fiscal policy could be significantly improved through the systematic use of information provided by global financial markets. In particular, we show how the information contained in internationally traded asset returns...

In this article we argue that the evaluation and implementation of Canadian fiscal policy could be significantly improved through the systematic use of information provided by global financial markets. In particular, we show how the information contained in internationally traded asset returns...

The article comprehensively considers the relationship between urbanization, economic growth and carbon emissions, select annual data on urbanization, economic growth and carbon emissions from 1978 to 2016 to do an empirical analysis of the two-way dynamic relationship between urbanization,...

Constrained Bayesian optimization optimizes a black-box objective function subject to black-box constraints. For simplicity, most existing works assume that multiple constraints are independent. To ask, when and how does dependence between constraints help? , we remove this assumption and...

A framework is developed in which the formation of gangs --- the criminal market structure --- is endogenous. We examine the impact of crime deterrence in this framework. It is shown that for a given gang structure, an increase in deterrence reduces criminal output. However, under identifiable...

Empirical studies reveal that monetary policy shocks generate long-lasting effects on real GDP, countercyclical real wages before World War II and procyclical real wages afterwards. In this paper, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model to explain the observed output persistence and the...