The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth's "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements" (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by...

The effectiveness of one aspect of the London School of Economics (LSE) approach to econometrics is assessed in a simulation study. The paper uses a data set and nine models analogous to those in Lovell''s (1983) study of data mining. A simplified general-to-specific algorithm is tested in a...

Starting with a realist ontology the economic methodologist, Tony Lawson, argues that econometrics is a failed project. Apparently more sympathetic to econometrics, the philosopher of science, Nancy Cartwright, again from a realist perspective, nonetheless argues for conditions of applicability...

The paper provides a careful, analytical account of Trygve Haavelmo's unsystematic, but important, use of the analogy between controlled experiments common in the natural sciences and econometric techniques. The experimental analogy forms the linchpin of the methodology for passive observation...

This paper considers the functioning of the international interbank market (IIBM), its contribution to the recent financial turbulence in Asia, and the policy issues presented by the existence of moral hazard and implicit guarantees of interbank liabilities. The paper provides statistical...