In the past fifteen years computational statistics has been enriched by a powerful, somewhat abstract method of generating variates from a target probability distribution that is based on Markov chains whose stationary distribution is the probability distribution of interest. This class of...

We argue for the adoption of a predictive approach to model specification. Specifically, we derive the difference between means and the ratio of determinants of covariance matrices when a subset of explanatory variables is included or excluded from a regression. Results for an economic...

We analyze the microfoundations for Keynesian aggregate demand effects by considering the link between aggregate demand and firm production decisions under monopolistic competition. Macroeconomic equilibrium is characterized in a simple graphical framework that facilitates comparison of several...

In this paper, we examine the proposition that both the structures of conglomerate firms and their merger activities evidence a systematic attempt to diversify income sources and reduce the volatility of firms' profits. We test whether firms that are active in one line of business are more...

In this paper, we examine the proposition that both the structures of conglomerate firms and their merger activities evidence a systematic attempt to diversify income sources and reduce the volatility of firms' profits. We test whether firms that are active in one line of business are more...

In the past fifteen years computational statistics has been enriched by a powerful, somewhat abstract method of generating variates from a target probability distribution that is based on Markov chains whose stationary distribution is the probability distribution of interest. This class of...

In this paper we reevaluate the returns to education based on the increase in the compulsory schooling age from 14 to 15 in the UK in 1947. We provide a Bayesian fuzzy regression discontinuity approach to infer the effect on earnings for a subset of subjects who turned 14 in a narrow window...

Kim, Shephard, and Chib (1998) provided a Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models based on a fast and reliable Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Their method ruled out the leverage effect, which is known to be important in applications. Despite this, their basic method has...