Habit persistence across six U.S. tourism sub-industries is estimated using a dynamic forward looking model. Estimates show that habits largely determine current expenditure for air transportation, shopping, accommodation, and other transportation. Estimated uncompensated price elasticities find...

We investigate lead-lag relationships among country stock returns and identify a leading role for the United States: lagged U.S. returns significantly predict returns in numerous non-U.S. industrialized countries (after controlling for national economic variables and countries' own lagged...

This paper evaluates the impact of immigration on African American wages, unemployment, employment and incarceration rates using a relatively large cross-sectional data-set of 900 cities. An endemic problem potentially plaguing the cross-sectional metro approach to immigration has been...

Colorado is considering raising personal income taxes to fund a $950 million initiative. Are the increased benefits from educational attainment worth the revenue costs? This study surveys in-depth the economic literature on the impact of increased educational expenditure on future income,...

We document that several well known asset-pricing implications of accruals differ for investment and non-investment-related components. Exposure to an investment-accruals factor explains the cross-section of returns better than the accruals themselves, and this factor's returns are negatively...

In this paper, we forecast industry returns out-of-sample using the cross-section of book-to-market ratios and investigate whether investors can exploit this predictability in portfolio allocation. Cash-flow and return forecasting regressions show that cross-industry book-to-market ratios...

What predicts returns on assets with "hard-to-value" fundamentals, such as Bitcoin and stocks in new industries? We propose an equilibrium model that shows how rational learning enables return predictability through technical analysis. We document that ratios of prices to their moving averages...

Motivated by the Campbell-Shiller present-value identity, we propose a new method of forecasting dividend growth that combines out-of-sample forecasts from 14 individual predictive regressions based on common return predictors. Combination forecast methods generate robust out-of-sample...

We present significant evidence of out-of-sample equity premium predictability for a host of industrialized countries over the postwar period. There are important differences, however, in the nature of equity premium predictability between the United States and other developed countries. Taken...

While a host of economic variables have been identified in the literature with the apparent in-sample ability to predict the equity premium, Goyal and Welch (2008) find that these variables fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecasting gains relative to the historical average. Arguing...