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in Japan, a monetary aggregate and an interest rate. The paper tests whether these variables are good predictors of … model, over two periods between 1960 and 1992. In the earlier period when Japan's financial markets were less developed, a …
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Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were...
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This paper examines Japan's experience in the first half of the 1990s to shed some light on several issues that arise … deflationary episode? We conclude that Japan's sustained deflationary slump was very much unanticipated by Japanese policymakers … the economy fell off significantly. Based on all these considerations, we draw the general lesson from Japan's experience …
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