The convergence hypothesis in growth theory implies that the frequency of the density distribution of GDP in a cross-section of countries tends to approach unimodality as we move forward in time. The convergence theory in a cross-section of 119 countries is tested by means of bootstrap...

One of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for most of its variance. In this paper, the authors use a statistical analysis based on switching regression models and nonparametric density estimation techniques to identify the...

This paper considers the role of international openness in facilitating the convergence of average income per capita between countries. The statistical technique of Discriminant Analysis is used to sort economies into groups of open and closed on the basis of a number of measures of the stance...

This paper extends US evidence on the ability of current dividend yields to predict future equity returns in the G5 countries. By using non-parametric methods, evidence of a similar non- linear structure is found in all the countries analysed. This casts doubt on the linear framework adopted in...

Granger causality tests are widely used in applied economics as a way of establishing if a variable has been a leading indicator of another over the past. However, like most statistical tests, Granger causality tests require that the relationship between the variables remains stable over the...

Il ruolo della politica economica all'interno di un sistema economico, ed in particolare la capacità o meno da parte di questa di esercitare un'influenza attiva, efficace e duratura sulla dinamica delle principali variabili macroeconomiche, è sempre stato un tema al centro dell'attenzione e...

The paper presents a nonparametric approach, based on kernel density estimators, to assess and compare persistence of output fluctuations in Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the Unated States. The results obtained are interpreted to be compatible in general...

In this paper we simulate a series which is segmented trend plus noise. Despite the imposed data generating process, usual tests for unit roots and estimates of persistence fail to reject the random walk hypothesis.

A procedure based on density estimation is suggested in the paper to discriminate trend stationary processes about local linear time trends from difference stationary processes. A 'rule of thumb' is constructed to detect the suitability of a segmented trend representation, and a regression...

This paper estimates the probability distribution of relative county unemployment in Britain for the years 1981-1995. We find that the distribution is unimodal in all years, with a falling variance between 1989 and 1994. We use bootstrap methods to determine critical values for the two tails of...