Employing a large number of financial indicators, we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. The indicators include credit spreads based on portfolios--constructed directly from the secondary market prices of outstanding bonds--sorted by maturity...

In this paper, we develop and apply certain tools to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. In particular, this paper makes three contributions: One, it argues the need for such tools to evaluate the usefulness of the these models; two, it...

DSGE models have now reached a point where they can and do serve an important role in the monetary policy process. From the standpoint of real-world policymaking, however, there remain important areas of omission and coarse approximation in these models. I argue that macroeconomics should follow...

This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of eurodollar contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on...

This working paper comments on Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider's 'Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield Curve', delivered at the Fiscal Policy and Monetary/Fiscal Policy Interactions conference held at the Atlanta Fed on April 19-20, 2007.

This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of eurodollar contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on...

This working paper comments on Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider's "Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield Curve," delivered at the Fiscal Policy and Monetary/Fiscal Policy Interactions conference held at the Atlanta Fed on April 19–20, 2007.