Engel and West (EW, 2005) argue that as the discount factor gets closer to one, present-value asset pricing models place greater weight on future fundamentals. Consequently, current fundamentals have very weak forecasting power and exchange rates appear to follow approximately a random walk. We...

This paper suggests that normal speculative activity could be a source of random-walk exchange rate behavior. Using a noise trader model to analyze very short-term exchange rate behavior, it shows that rational, risk-averse speculators will smooth the impact of shocks to exchange rate...

Traders, strategists, and other participants in the currency markets continuously seek to understand and interpret short-term exchange rate movements. One data set frequently used in those efforts is a weekly report of net futures market positions held by speculators on the Chicago Mercantile...

We define the class of local Lévy processes. These are Lévy processes time changed by an inhomogeneous local speed function. The local speed function is a deterministic function of time and the level of the process itself. We show how to reverse engineer the local speed function from traded...

The key question asked by standard monetary models used for policy analysis is, How do changes in short-term interest rates affect the economy? All of the standard models imply that such changes in interest rates affect the economy by altering the conditional means of the macroeconomic...

We define the class of local Lévy processes. These are Lévy processes time changed by an inhomogeneous local speed function. The local speed function is a deterministic function of time and the level of the process itself. We show how to reverse engineer the local speed function from traded...

The purpose of this paper is to provide a non-technical exposition of the main conclusions of the theory of Rational Belief Equilibrium (RBE) for market volatility. It is argued that the theory of Rational Belief Equilibria (RBE) provides a unified paradigm for explaining market volatility by...

1914 ve 1918 yılları arasında, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu iktisadi anlamda yıkım yaratan Birinci Dünya Savaşı’na dahil olmuştu. Savaşın sonunda ülke işgal edilmiş ve işgal kuvvetleri ile çatışmalar ortaya çıkmıştı. Tarihsel çalışmalarda, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu’nun...

This study aims to investigate whether the phenomena found by Shnoll et al. when applying histogrampattern analysis techniques to stochastic processes from chemistry and physics are also present infinancial time series, particularly exchange rate and index data. The phenomena are related to...