Economic models that incorporate expectations require non causal time series theory. We provide a general method useful to solve in closed form any forward linear rational expectations multivariate model. An anticipative VARMA model is likely to explain a behavioral relation were a tentative...

We estimate real US GDP growth as a threshold autoregressive process, and construct confidence intervals for the parameter estimates. However, there are various approaches that can be used in constructing the confidence intervals. We construct confidence intervals for the slope coefficients and...

The overall incarceration rate in the United States is extremely high by international standards. Moreover, there are large racial disparities, with the black male rate of imprisonment being 5.5 times the white male rate in 2014. This paper focus on how this black-white imprisonment ratio has...