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inflation rate and output are an average of the ones preferred by the committee and the special interest groups; thus, size of a …). The reason is that special interest group’s weights on equilibrium inflation rate under influence is lower the higher the … stable inflation rate will appoint a larger committee; ii) larger committees deliver lower and more stable inflation rates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011279221
With interest groups significantly affecting economic performance (according to Mancur Olson) and a vital interest of governments in economic growth and low unemployment in order to win elections, there should be a link between political business cycles and the evolution of lobbies over time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270371
Using voting data from the Bank of England, we show that different individual assessments of the economy strongly influence votes after controlling for individual policy preferences. We estimate that internal members form more precise assessments than externals and are also more hawkish, though...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293915
From a normative perspective, it is striking that the degree of central bank independence (CBI) varies considerably across countries. Taking a political economy perspective, this paper demonstrates how different degrees of CBI may be the result of strategic policy-making. While an independent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299150
We examine whether central banks' voting records help predict the future course of monetary policy in the Czech republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom, controlling for financial market expectations. Unlike previous research, first, we examine the period of the global financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340621
democratic version. Next, the model predictions are tested on real data on five inflation targeting countries (the Czech Republic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322275
Most monetary policy committees decide on interest rates using a simple majority voting rule. Given the inherent heterogeneity of committee members, this voting rule is suboptimal in terms of the quality of the interest rate decision, but popular for other (political) reasons. We show that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325243
We analyze the ECB Governing Council's voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme based on the multilinear extension (MLE) of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327326
Monetary Policy Committees differ in the way the interest rate proposal is prepared and presented in the policy meeting. In this paper we show analytically how different arrangements could affect the voting behaviour of individual MPC members and therefore policy outcomes. We then apply our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605116
How large should a monetary policy committee be? Which voting rule should a monetary policy committee adopt? This paper builds on Condorcet's jury threorem to analyse the relationships between committee size and voting rules in a model where policy discussions are subject to a time constraint....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605479