An introduction to a new exchange-rate index to measure the foreign-exchange value of the dollar. The authors develop a model of U.S. merchandise trade, featuring the new index.

A consideration of whether differences between U.S. and Japanese business practices have led the Japanese to focus on longer-run goals than we do.

A comparison of the reliability of the Commerce Department's capital spending survey with that of several alternative forecasts.

An examination of the theoretical impact of an oil shortage on the U.S. economy and the problems that such shortages present for monetary policy.

An argument that for countries with well-developed money markets and flexible exchange rates, there is little to be gained from holding a vast foreign exchange portfolio and intervening in the world's currency markets.

An exploration of the causes of the improved performance of the Great Lakes region in the 1990-91 recession relative to past economic downturns, and a prediction that the mild levels and duration of employment loss posted here during the past two years cannot be assured to continue in the next...