"Forecast targeting", forward-looking monetary policy that uses central-bank judgment to construct optimal policy projections of the target variables and the instrument rate, may perform substantially better than monetary policy that disregards judgment and follows a given instrument rule. This...

The author discusses "inflation targeting in an open economy and, in particular, about the choice between "strict" and "flexible" inflation targeting."

The paper discusses the implementation of inflation-targeting across countries. It argues that the intermediate variable under an inflation target is, in effect, the inflation forecast. Such a regime is shown to confer benefits over other regimes, such as money and exchange rate targeting: in...

This working paper comments on Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider's 'Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield Curve', delivered at the Fiscal Policy and Monetary/Fiscal Policy Interactions conference held at the Atlanta Fed on April 19-20, 2007.

This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of eurodollar contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on...

"It is well known that augmenting a standard linear regression model with variables that are correlated with the error term but uncorrelated with the original regressors will increase asymptotic efficiency of the original coefficients. We argue that in the context of predicting excess returns,...