Since a speech by the Prime Minister in January 2013 , the Conservative party has been committed to holding a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU) in 2017. So this is a good moment to consider what would be the likely economic effects on the UK from such a move...

Since a speech by the Prime Minister in January 2013 , the Conservative party has been committed to holding a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union (EU) in 2017. So this is a good moment to consider what would be the likely economic effects on the UK from such a move (commonly...

We discuss how standard computable equilibrium models of trade policy can be enriched with selection effects without missing other important channels of adjustment. This is achieved by estimating and simulating a partial equilibrium model that accounts for a number of real world effects of trade...

We depict an industrial district as a center of innovation where positive local spillovers sustain the endogenous invention of new goods by profit-seeking firms. After invention, firms face a crucial choice between reaching distant markets by export or plant delocation. Attempts by firms to...

The article studies policy options in an economy which is unstable under bond-financing of a predetermined government deficit. We analyze policies based on pre-announced changes in monetary control or on confi-scation of that part of the Government debt which could only be retired through a...

We develop a stylized model of international tax competition between a large country and a tax haven. In the large country, firms in a monopolistically competitive industry generate positive profits which can be taxed by the government. Firms have heterogeneous productivity levels and can choose...

Aggregated times series variables can be forecasted in different ways. For example, they may be forecasted on the basis of the aggregate series or forecasts of disaggregated variables may be obtained first and then these forecasts may be aggregated. A number of forecasts are presented and...

This paper develops an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms to analyze the impact of intra-industry trade on productivity growth. Growth is generated by selection, and sustained by entrants imitating successful incumbents. Firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks and...