A new time series model is proposed to describe observed asymmetries in postwar unemployment data. We assume that recession periods, when unemployment increases rapidly, are caused by unobserved positive shocks. The generating mechanism of these latent shocks is a censored regression model,...

Due to high and low volatility periods, time series of absolute returns experience temporary level shifts (that is, periods with outliers) which differ in length and size. In this paper we put forward a new model which can describe and forecast the location and size of such level shifts. Our so...

Due to high and low volatility periods, time series of absolute returns experience temporary level shifts (that is, periods with outliers) which differ in length and size. In this paper we put forward a new model which can describe and forecast the location and size of such level shifts. Our so...

In this paper the seasonal unit root test of Hylleberg et al. (1990) is generalized to cover a heterogenous panel. The procedure follows the work of Im, Pesaran and Shin (2002). Test statistics are proposed and critical values are obtained by simulations. Moreover, the properties of the tests...

In this paper the seasonal unit root test of Hylleberg et al. (1990) is generalized to cover a heterogenous panel. The procedure follows the work of Im, Pesaran and Shin (2002). Test statistics are proposed and critical values are obtained by simulations. Moreover, the properties of the tests...

This paper analyzes the link between the diffusion of information- and communication technology (ICT) and both the skill structure and employment expectations of the different skill categories. The analysis is based on cross-sectional data for 4150 German firms conducted in mid-2000. The...

We study a random effects censored regression model in the context of repeated games. Introducing a feedback variable into the model leads to violation of the strict exogeneity assumption, thus rendering the random effects estimator inconsistent. Using the example of contributions to a public...

We propose an estimation procedure for a semiparametric panel data censored regression model in which the error terms may be subject to general forms of nonstationarity. Specifically, we allow for heteroskedasticity over time and a time varying factor load on the individual specific effect....

Interaction effects capture the impact of one explanatory variable x 1 on the marginal effect of another explanatory variable x 2. To explore interaction effects, the so-called interaction terms x 1 x 2 are typically included in estimation specifications. While in linear models the effect of a...

We propose a dynamic factor model for the analysis of multivariate time series count data. Our model allows for idiosyncratic as well as common serially correlated latent factors in order to account for potentially complex dynamic interdependence between series of counts. The model is estimated...