The paper proposes an approach to evaluate hypotheses about transition dynamics when only the distributions at two points in time are observed. Using the principle of statistical mechanics, we show how to adjust in the most probable way a hypothesis so that it becomes compatible with the...

Two approaches for model-based clustering of categorical time series based on time- homogeneous first-order Markov chains are discussed. For Markov chain clustering the in- dividual transition probabilities are fixed to a group-specific transition matrix. In a new approach called Dirichlet...

This paper reconsiders the evolution of the growth of American cities since 1790 in light of new theories of urban growth. Our null hypothesis for long-term growth is random growth. We obtain evidence supporting random growth against the alternative of mean reversion (convergence) in city sizes...

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the...

This study provides new insights into banks' credit risk models by exploring features of their credit risk estimates and assessing practicalities of transition matrix estimation and related assumptions. Using a unique dataset of internal credit risk estimates from twelve global A-IRB banks,...

The present study contributes to the limited literature on labor mobility in India using the India Human Development Survey panel data for the years 2004-2005 and 2011-2012. We use three different tools, viz., transition matrices, multinomial logistic regression, and wage regressions for this...

We develop a four-factor model intended to capture size, value, and credit rating transition patterns in excess returns for a panel of predominantly mid- and large-cap entities. Using credit transition matrices and rating histories from 48 US issuers, we provide evidence to support a...

In this paper we describe the pattern of creation and destruction of Chilean firms between 1999 and 2006. In addition, we construct transition matrices among different firm sizes based on tax information. It has to be noted that the available data for this study is probably the closest to what...

Two approaches for model-based clustering of categorical time series based on time- homogeneous first-order Markov chains are discussed. For Markov chain clustering the in- dividual transition probabilities are fixed to a group-specific transition matrix. In a new approach called Dirichlet...