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The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2010

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303756

Forecasting and policy making

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik Hendrik - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010368564

Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations

Badarinza, Cristian; Buchmann, Marco - 2011

In this paper we discuss the role of the cross-sectional heterogeneity of beliefs in the context of understanding and assessing macroeconomic vulnerability. Emphasis lies on the potential of changing levels of disagreement in expectations to influence the propensity of the economy to switch...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605452

Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?

Breuss, Fritz - 2016

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011630409

Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance

Virkola, Tuomo - 2014

This paper studies real-time measures of the output gap and fiscal policy stance estimates for EU countries. We construct a comprehensive real-time data set on fiscal forecasts and study whether there are systematic differences between the European Commission and IMF estimates of the output gap...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037657

The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle

Boshoff, Willem Hendrik - 2006

The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in SouthAfrican financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationshipbetween cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The studyis based on the original business cycle...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009442149

Konjunkturprognosen: Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler

Grömling, Michael - 2005

The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262887

The failure to predict the Great Recession : the failure of academic economics? : a view focusing on the role of credit

Gadea Rivas, María Dolores; Pérez Quirós, Gabriel - 2012

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest fi nancial and real crisis. Reading the recent literature, it seems that the crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind when looking at data not to see it coming. In this paper, we analyze whether such claims...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012530408

Model averaging in Markov-Switching models : predicting national recessions with regional data

Guérin, Pierre - 2017

En este artículo se introducen nuevos esquemas de ponderación para promediar de modelos econométricos cuando se está interesado en combinar predicciones de variables discretas provenientes de modelos con cambios de régimen markoviano. En una aplicación empírica, se pronostican los puntos...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012530567

Recession probabilities falling from the STARs

Eraslan, Sercan; Nöller, Marvin - 2020

comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180928

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