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We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
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The most widely used textbooks on Introductory Econometrics conflate three distinct population parameters: the …
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I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
results show that by providing information about the wines' ratings, prices, or reputation, tasters' expectations can be …
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This paper presents the econometric approach to causal modeling. It is motivated by policy problems. New causal parameters are defined and identified to address specific policy problems...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860258
There has recently been a rapid expansion of interest in the econometrics of summative program evaluation, both within …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005032816
approach should create the possibilities of current state observation, progress evaluation and forecasts formulation. The … schools) up to tertiary education institutions. The evaluation of education quality and accessibility ought to be associated …
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