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We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420579
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I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
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results show that by providing information about the wines' ratings, prices, or reputation, tasters' expectations can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014438148
This paper presents the econometric approach to causal modeling. It is motivated by policy problems. New causal parameters are defined and identified to address specific policy problems...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860258
informing the development of these policies. It is particularly concerned with issues arising in the quantitative evaluation of … the impact of policy, the major barriers to more effective evaluation and how these might be addressed in future. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011126214
The term health econometrics has been adopted to describe the development and application of econometric methods within … health economics. This article outlines the distinctive issues that arise in applying econometrics to health data and how …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010861113
informing the development of these policies. It is particularly concerned with issues arising in the quantitative evaluation of … the impact of policy, the major barriers to more effective evaluation and how these might be addressed in future. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010752700
There has recently been a rapid expansion of interest in the econometrics of summative program evaluation, both within …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005032816