Foster, Dean P.; Hart, Sergiu - In: Theoretical Economics 18 (2023) 4, pp. 1441-1474
In order to identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by their calibration score, which can always be made arbitrarily small, but rather by their Brier score. The Brier score is the sum of the calibration score and the refinement score; the latter measures how good the sorting into...