The defaulted and distressed, public and private debt markets in the United States increased enormously to a record $942 billion (face value) at the end of 2002. The market value of this increasingly attractive alternative investment segment was approximately $512 billion. (...)

During the recent crisis, lags in the transmission mechanism of economic shocks, together with monetary and fiscal policy, made it difficult to assess the evolving dynamics of creditworthiness. As such, developments in financial markets became a key guide for investors and policymakers in...

Taking advantage of recently augmented corporate bond transaction data, we examine the pricing implications of informed trading in corporate bonds and its ability to predict corporate defaults. We find that microstructure measures of information asymmetry seem to capture adverse selection in...

This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond-trading model, we show that the decline in market risk tolerance and information accuracy leads to trading loss under downside conditions. Our empirical analysis indicates that...

Using a structural model of default, we construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. The systemic default measure spikes during recession...

By means of an international sample of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) involving firms with outstanding Eurobonds from the US, Europe, and other countries around the world, we show that bond performance around M&A announcements is sensitive to cross-country differences in creditor...

We assess the perception of professional forecasters regarding the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy measures announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Using survey data collected at the individual level, we analyze the change in forecasts of...