We introduce a novel set of social network analysis based algorithms for mining the Web, blogs, and online forums to identify trends and find the people launching these new trends. These algorithms have been implemented in Condor, a software system for predictive search and analysis of the Web...

This paper describes first results of an ongoing research effort using real time data collected by social badges to correlate temporal changes in social interaction patterns with performance of individual actors and groups. Towards that goal we analyzed social interaction among a team of...

This paper investigates the impact of unemployment on the propensity to start a family. Unemployment is accompanied by bad occupational prospects and impending economic deprivation, placing the well-being of a future family at risk. I analyze unemployment at the intersection of state-dependence...

The aim of this paper is to investigate how occupational prospects affect first-birth decisions of men and women. Contrasting the continental conservative German welfare state with the liberal market economy of the UK, the focus of analyses rests on how welfare state alignment affects fertility...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the hypothesis that after leaving the educational system, labour market integration has a causal effect on first-birth decisions. The analysis focuses on two major research questions: First, how is the timing of first parenthood associated with previous...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the hypothesis that after leaving the educational system, labour market integration has a causal effect on first-birth decisions. The analysis focuses on two major research questions: First, how is the timing of first parenthood associated with previous...

This paper investigates the impact of unemployment on the propensity to start a family. Unemployment is accompanied by bad occupational prospects and impending economic deprivation, placing the well-being of a future family at risk. I analyze unemployment at the intersection of state-dependence...

In dieser Untersuchung wird gezeigt, wie neuere ökonometrische Verfahren zur Modellierung und Prognose von Volatilitäten auf Aktienmärkten eingesetzt werden können. Hierzu werden verschiedene Varianten aus der Klasse der ARCH Modelle und das Markov-Mischungsmodell herangezogen. Die...

Various empirical studies have shown that the time-varying volatility of asset returns can be described by GARCH (generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) models. The corresponding GARCH option pricing model of Duan (1995) is capable of depicting the smile-effect which often...