Scenario planning can be a useful and attractive tool in strategic management. In a rapidly changing environment it can avoid the pitfalls of more traditional methods. Moreover, it provides a means of addressing uncertainty without recourse to the use of subjective probabilities, which can...

This paper focuses upon the status and prevalence of expert systems in life insurance in the UK today and reports the results of a widescale survey conducted by the authors. About 90% of the companies who responded are undertaking some form of activity in the field, with 59% expected to have...

The financial services industry and, in particular, the insurance industry has emerged as an important user of expert systems. In the following review we examine evidence of the spread of such systems in insurance, and focus more particularly upon life insurance, where the greatest amount of...

Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery...

A number of studies have shown that providing point forecasts to decision makers can lead to improved production planning decisions. However, point forecasts do not convey information about the level of uncertainty that is associated with forecasts. In theory, the provision of prediction...