This paper addresses several questions about the time series processes followed by dollar exchange rates. The stochastic process for exchange rates implied by structural models and the conditions under which they would be described by random walks are examined. Tests on the univariate time...

The random walk property of exchange rates is frequently regarded as carrying strong implications for the kinds of shocks that have driven exchange rates and the models appropriate for analyzing their behavior. This paper conducts stochastic simulations of Dornbusch’s (1976) sticky-price...

This paper decomposes longer-run movements in (major) dollar real exchange rates into components associated with changes in nominal exchange rates and price levels, and their comovements. Though the decompositions suggest some permanent movements, they imply that there are large transitory...

The Canadian experience with a floating exchange rate regime can shed some light on the question of whether A question of current interest in many parts of the world is whether with growing economic integration among groups of countries makes a fixed exchange rate, or even a common currency,...

This book analyzes the importance for Asia of rebalancing its growth model toward domestic demand, and what such a rebalancing would entail. The nature of the challenge differs across regional economies, as some, like China, need to raise private consumption while others, like the ASEAN...

This paper quantifies the economic impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on emerging market countries. We explore empirically how country risk, as proxied by sovereign bond spreads, is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, country-specific fundamentals, and conditions in global capital...

This paper provides estimates of potential output growth in post-apartheid South Africa using both time trend techniques and a production function approach which indicates a potential growth rate of around 3 percent. The implied output gap provides statistically significant information for...

This paper provides an overview of recent Chinese reforms to introduce a modern system of fiscal federalism that balances the need for central macroeconomic control with the economic advantages of decentralized government. Following a discussion of the rationale for decentralization, the paper...

This paper empirically examines the extent to which a country''s economic growth is influenced by its trading partner economies. Panel estimation results based on four decades of data for over 100 countries show that trading partners'' growth and relative income levels have a strong effect on...

This paper surveys the literature on sovereign debt that deals with the issues of a country’s ability-to-pay, its willingness-to-pay, and the policy responses to the debt crisis of the 1980s. The existence of an ability-to-pay problem suggests a need for debt reduction, but plans for debt...