Hilft eine höhere Geburtenrate, die Folgen der Alterung zu dämpfen? Die Ergebnisse der Wirtschaftstheorie sind keinesfalls eindeutig, auch wenn die Idee – „Wenn wir zu viele Alte haben, brauchen wir mehr Kinder, um dies wieder auszugleichen“ – plausibel erscheint. Auch die...

This paper shows that the capital market effects of population aging and pension reform are particularly strong in continental European economies such as France, Germany, and Italy. Reasons are threefold: these countries have large and ailing pay-as-you-go public pension systems, relatively thin...

We present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision...

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the...

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households’ expectations of...

Medicare Part D provides prescription drug coverage through Medicare approved plans offered by private insurance companies and HMOs. In this paper, we study the role of current prescription drug use and health risks, related expectations, and subjective factors in the demand for prescription...

Population aging is just beginning to hit the industrialized countries in full force, and it will have a tremendous impact on capital markets. Capital market effects of population aging are particularly strong in continental European economies such as Germany, with their large pay-as-you- go...

We use a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference in a dynamic discrete choice decision problem. Our experimental design induces preferences up to each subject’s subjective rates of time preference, leaving...

We present a quantitative analysis of international capital flows induced by differential population aging and pension reform. It is well known that within each country, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings. This process may be amplified if pension reform shifts old-age...

This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre-funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed-economy, overlapping-generations model to compare the effects of the recent German...