Zhang and Shaman considered the problem of estimating the conditional mean-squared prediciton error (CMSPE) for a Gaussian autoregressive (AR) process. They used the final prediction error (FPE) of Akaike to estimate CMSPE and proposed that FPE's effectiveness be judged by its asymptotic...

This paper develops an empirical framework to determine if the Asian currency crisis was contagious, and if so, whether the contagion was warranted or unwarranted. By applying a monetary-portfolio model to monthly data for 1991-1998, our results show that short-run variations in exchange rates...

Conventional measures of the risk of a financial asset make use of the unobserved (conditional) variance or standard deviation of its return. In this paper, we treat the observed absolute return as a measure of risk and explore its forecastability. Two simple models are considered. One is a new...

The pedagogical value of graphical representations and analyses (GR and GA) in economics education is examined in a framework of top-down and bottom-up processes of thinking. We argue, with the support of two illustrative examples, that they are useful to the extent that they provide bridges...

The pedagogical value of graphical representations and analyses (GR and GA) in economics education is examined in a framework of top-down and bottom-up processes of thinking. We argue, with the support of two illustrative examples, that they are useful to the extent that they provide bridges...

Macroeconomic or financial data are often modelled with cointegration and GARCH. Noticeable examples include those studies of price discovery, in which stock prices of the same underlying asset are cointegrated and they exhibit multivariate GARCH. Modifying the asymptotic theories developed in...

Macroeconomic or financial data are often modelled with cointegration and GARCH. Noticeable examples include those studies of price discovery, in which stock prices of the same underlying asset are cointegrated and they exhibit multivariate GARCH. Modifying the asymptotic theories developed in...

A currency attack fails on its own when the speculator suffers from her financial problem. This paper extends the existing models and argues that the monetary authority?s willingness to peg and the speculator?s cost of attack are private information. Our model thus accounts for the duration of...

This paper develops an empirical framework to determine if the Asian currency crisis was contagious, and if so, whether the contagion was warranted or unwarranted. By applying a monetary-portfolio model to monthly data for 1991 - 1998, our results show that short-run variations in exchange rates...