Most banks employ historical simulation for Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculations, where VaR is computed from a lower quantile of a forecast distribution for the portfolio’s profit and loss (P&L) that is constructed from a single, multivariate historical sample on the portfolio’s risk factors....

This paper explores the properties of random orthogonal matrix (ROM) simulation when the random matrix is drawn from the class of rotational matrices. We describe the characteristics of ROM simulated samples that are generated using random Hessenberg, Cayley and exponential matrices and compare...

This paper introduces a method for simulating multivariate samples that have exact means, covariances, skewness and kurtosis. A new class of rectangular orthogonal matrices is fundamental to the methodology, and these "L-matrices'' can be deterministic, parametric or data specific in nature. The...

This paper resolves the conceptual ambiguity of real option value and derives a model using risk-adjusted discount rates that can be applied to value the option to invest in a project. The approach adopts stochastic revenue and costs which provide a general solution with the added virtue of...

With institutional investors increasingly involved in alternative investments, portfolio optimisation within a large universe of hedge funds has become a key area for research. This paper develops a portfolio construction model that is specifically designed for funds of hedge funds,...

This paper examines the performance of a general dynamic equity indexing strategy based on cointegration, from a market efficiency perspective. A consistent return in excess of the benchmark is demonstrated over different time horizons and in different, real world and simulated stock markets. A...

We present a detailed study of portfolio optimisation based on cointegration, a statistical tool that here exploits a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and an index price. We compare the theoretical and empirical properties of cointegration optimal equity portfolios with...

Conditional returns distributions generated by a GARCH process, which are important for many problems in market risk assessment and portfolio optimization, are typically generated via simulation. This paper extends previous research on analytic moments of GARCH returns distributions in several...