Phillips (1986) provides asymptotic theory for regressions that relate nonstationary time series including those integrated of order 1, I(1). A practical implication of the literature on spurious regression is that one cannot trust the usual confidence intervals. In the absence of prior...

Consumer theory still maximizes utility subject to a budget constraint, when in fact 2008 data show that consumer debt is 130% of disposable income. Granger-causality tests confirm Consumption precedence over income. We discuss several features of newer US data, such as the ability to start...

A new two-way map between time domain and numerical magnitudes or values domain (v-dom) provides a new solution to heteroscedasticity. Since sorted logs of squared fitted residuals are monotonic in the v-dom, we obtain a parsimonious fit there. Two theorems prove consistency, asymptotic...

While moving block bootstrap (MBB) has been used for mildly dependent (m-dependent) time series, maximum entropy (ME) bootstrap (meboot) is perhaps the only tool for inference involving perfectly dependent, nonstationary time series, possibly subject to jumps, regime changes and gaps. This brief...

This paper attempts to compare the performance of presidents George W. Bush and Obama in the context of reduction of unemployment by comparing the Beveridge curve tradeoffs between vacancy and unemployment rates. We consider monthly data and measure the output of the economy as gross value of...

Quantitative researchers often use Student’s t-test (and its p-values) to claim that a particular regressor is important (statistically significantly) for explaining the variation in a response variable. A study is subject to the p-hacking problem when its author relies too much on formal...

Quantitative researchers often use Student's t-test (and its p-values) to claim that a particular regressor is important (statistically significantly) for explaining the variation in a response variable. A study is subject to the p-hacking problem when its author relies too much on formal...

This paper challenges two clichés that have dominated the macroeconometric debates in India. One relates to the neoclassical view that deficits are detrimental to growth, as they increase the rate of interest, and in turn displace the interest-rate-sensitive components of private investment....

Japan since 1990 and the US since 2008 have a zero interest (or “Liquidity Trap”) environment. Bankers' DNA contains: (1) Inability to charge money instead of paying interest for deposits, (2) double entry book-keeping, and (3) inflation-aversion. I show that this DNA is responsible for the...