We investigate four sources of uncertainty with CPB’s macroeconomic model SAFFIER: provisional data, exogenous variables, model parameters and residuals of behavioural equations. Uncertainty is an inherent attribute of any forecast. We apply a Monte Carlo simulation technique to...

We use the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Altig et al. (2005) to analyse the resilience of an economy in the face of external shocks. The term resilience refers to the ability of an economy to prosper in the face of shocks. The Altig et al. model was chosen because it...

Official forecasts of international institutions are never purely model-based. Preliminary results of models are adjusted with expert opinions. What is the impact of these adjustments for the forecasts? Are they necessary to get 'optimal' forecasts? When model-based forecasts are adjusted by...

Economic growth is ultimately driven by advances in productivity. In turn, productivity growth is driven by R&D and by utilisation of the public knowledge pool. This public knowledge pool is generated by universities and public research institutions. Underutilisation by firms of results from...

This CPB Discussion Paper investigates the effect of receiving a grant from the Dutch Technology Foundation STW on the research output of an individual researcher. <strong>We find no evidence that STW grant receipt increases research output for the general funding programme (OTP) whereas the results...</strong>