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As the 2000 election so vividly showed, it is Electoral College standings rather than national popular votes that determine who becomes President. But current pre-election polls focus almost exclusively on the popular vote. Here we present a method by which pollsters can achieve both point...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005369008
The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011265049
This research provides a new way to validate and compare buy-till-you-defect [BTYD] models. These models specify a customer’s transaction and defection processes in a non-contractual setting. They are typically used to identify active customers in a com- pany’s customer base and to predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010730912
This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825961
The existing literature suggests a number of alternative methods to test for the presence of contagion during financial market crises. This paper reviews those methods and shows how they are related in a unified framework. A number of extensions are also suggested that allow for multivariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825971
This paper develops a small open economy model where entrepreneurs partially finance investment using foreign currency denominated debt subject to a risk premium above and beyond international interest rates. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to evaluate the importance of balance sheet...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826005
A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian parameters and filtering volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826355
Probability of default (PD) measures have been widely used in estimating potential losses of, and contagion among, large financial institutions. In a period of financial stress however, the existing methods to compute PDs and generate loss estimates that may vary significantly. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008646426
We analyze structural state dependence in brand choice using variation from brand switching during stock-outs caused by hurricanes. We derive a simple test for structural state dependence based on the time-series of choice persistence for households affected by the stock-outs. Using data from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013427675
The fashion industry is considered one of the most relevant industries worldwide. At the same time, however, it is repeatedly accused of irresponsible behavior toward the environment and society. For fashion brands who identify Generation Z as an attractive customer target group, the increasing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014426911