This paper provides an underlying reason for why recent Bayesian trend-cycle decompositions of U.S. real GDP differ despite using identical unobserved components models. We stress that a pitfall in estimating unobserved components models accounts for the divergence in the empirical conclusions....

In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...

The RF Ministry of Economic Development presented three scenarios in its socioeconomic development forecast for 2016, which envisaged that the GDP decline trajectory would hit its lowest point in 2015 (-3.9%), and the rate of GDP growth would be fluctuating somewhere between (-1.0) and 2.3% in...

In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...

This paper aims to investigate the co-movement between the credit growth and gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Turkey over the period January 2004–October 2019. By taking into account alternative credit decomposition and the variations over time and across frequencies using the wavelet...

We account for the price and quantity components of a decomposition of the expression for a GDP increase accross periods. Our linear measure is compared with Irving Fisher s multiplicative measure. Where technical progress enters is noted.