The theoretical argument for central bank independence is based on the idea that even if the government represents people's preferences over inflation and output it has an incentive to renege from prearranged plans to gain a short run boost to output. This incentive leads to higher than desired...

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - i.e. the central bank and private agents - who have different...

n this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has effects on the...

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates into a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents – ie central bank and private agents – who have different...

The implications of uncertain policy preferences for the targeting and contracting approaches to monetary policy are investigated. It is shown that, in the presence of uncertain preferences, a linear incentive contract in the sense of Walsh performs better than an explicit inflation target as...

Policy brief on the impacts of COVID-19 on long-term food security. The brief looks at three scenarios for food security by 2040, and quantifies the impact of COVID-19 on undernourishment by 2040. It then moves to unpacking the underlying drivers of food supply, food access and food utilization

Guinea-Bissau is currently one of the least developed countries in the world, ranking 178th out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index (2019). We study the economic and human development outlook to 2040. We show that economic growth will improve the human condition in Guinea-Bissau...

The spread of COVID-19 has been devastating for the millions of people who have been infected by the virus and lost their lives and the tens of millions of people who have lost their work and livelihoods. Governments and civil society have responded swiftly to the virus with policies that reduce...