This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidence limits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fit errors expressed as a function...

This paper explores the use of quantile regression for estimation of empirical confidence limits for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices. Quantile regressions for corn, soybean, and wheat forecast errors over 1980/81 through 2006/07 were specified as a function of forecast lead...

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether smoothing in USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is concentrated in years with relatively small and large crops. The sample consists of all USDA corn and soybean production forecasts released over the 1970 through 2006 crop years. Results...

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of situation and outlook information from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in corn and soybean futures markets over the period 1985 to 2006. Results indicate that WASDE reports containing National Agricultural Statistics...

This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions forWASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidencelimits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fiterrors expressed as a function of...

This study investigates empirical methods of generating prediction intervals for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices over the 1980/81 through 2006/07 marketing years. Empirical methods use historical forecast errors to estimate forecast error distributions, which are then used to...

This study investigated the magnitude of forecast improvements resulting from correction of inefficiencies in USDA cotton forecasts over 1999/00 to 2008/09 marketing years. The aspects of forecast performance included in this study were 1) bias and trends in bias, 2) correlation between forecast...

This study evaluates the accuracy of USDA interval forecasts for corn, soybean, and wheat prices using Christoffersen’s (1998) tests for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage adjusted for asymmetries in tail probabilities. The findings of this study demonstrate that due...

This study explores market forces that affect harvest grain basis for corn, soybeans, and wheat in a grain deficit market. The findings indicate that implied basis (cash forward bid less harvest futures), nearby HHO price, and log of open interest on the harvest futures contract can be used to...