Causality was at the center of the early history of Structural Equation Models (SEMs) which continue to serve as the most popular approach to causal analysis in the social sciences. Through decades of development critics and defenses of the capability of SEMs to support causal inference have...

Two recently developed probabilistic multidimensional models for analyzing pairwise choice data are introduced, discussed in terms of their differential properties, and extended in several ways. The first one, the wandering vector model, was originally suggested by Carroll [12] and extended by...

This paper considers whether, in their day to day routines, presidents control their agendas or react to the institution's burdens. It utilizes minute by minute logs of presidential operations during the first 100 days of eight presidents, Dwight Eisenhower through George H. W. Bush. Making four...

How do parties motivate candidates to exert effort in closed-list elections? If each candidate’s primary goal is winning a seat, then those in safe and hopeless list positions have weak incentives to campaign. We present a model in which (i) candidates care about both legislative seats and the...

The concept of electoral competition plays a central role in many subfields of political science, but no consensus exists on how to measure it. One key challenge is how to conceptualize and measure electoral competitiveness at the district level across alternative electoral systems. Recent...

A vast and growing quantitative literature considers how social networks shape political mobilization but the degree to which turnout decisions are strategic remains ambiguous. Unlike previous studies, we establish personal links between voters and candidates and exploit discontinuous incentives...

As global temperatures keep increasing and the amount of Co2 equivalent stuff in the atmosphere is at record level, the key links between GDP growth, energy consumption expansion and greenhouse gases emission increases must be more researched, although economic growth and ecological capital has...