The decline of velocity in the 1980s is a surprise that should not have been. Economists unwisely relied on a velocity trend of 3 percent per year when they should have insisted on an economic explanation for rising velocity. An analysis of velocity and interest rates from 1915 to 1986 suggests...

A number of different economic and political conditions have contributed to the sluggish rate of the current economic recovery; some of these, such as substantial defense cuts, are widely recognized whereas others are poorly understood. This latter category includes the role of inflation and...

The Shadow Open Market Committee has traditionally summarized its monetary-policy advice in a recommended rate of growth of the monetary base. However, since the Shadow Open Market Committee meeting in the spring of 1991, our recommendation has deemphasized the base because rapid growth in...

This sideways movement of money market interest rates reflects a standoff of opposing forces. On the one hand, the high rate of money growth has made the Federal Reserve reluctant to press interest rates down further; and the market, understanding both the Fed's reluctance and the danger that...