inflation. The model, named the rational-arrangements Phillips curve, identifies a central role for catch-up to price inflation … that has already occurred and a more latent role for rational expectations of future inflation. The reinterpreted Phillips …-neutrality, is consistent with inflation persistence in the aftermath of monetary shocks, informs monetary policymaking in hyper …

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries …: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than …

, thus allowing a comparison of the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics. For most … countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as a more relevant inflation driver than the … ; terms of trade fluctuations ; inflation dynamics ; GMM estimation …

improvement in performance is driven mostly by lagged inflation and that the SPI model overemphasizes inflationary persistence …. There appears to be room for improvement in all models in order to induce them to better "track" inflation persistence …

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of inflation targeting on the unemployment-inflation trade-off in … OECD countries. Theoretical models suggest that the credibility-enhancing effects of the adoption of inflation targeting … should cause an improvement in the unemployment-inflation trade-off, i.e., that reducing inflation by a given amount should …